Tooro United 1–1 Gaddafi: Result & Stats

Tooro United

FT

1 – 1

Gaddafi

10/26/2021

Premier League · Round 3Buhinga Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tooro United41%

×Draw27%

Gaddafi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tooro UnitedExpected goals in this matchGaddafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Tooro United

1.32

Gaddafi

1.14

Tooro United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 44 away

0.82

creates per match

0.66

1.61

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Tooro United

0.82

Gaddafi

0.66

allows per match

Tooro United

1.61

Gaddafi

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tooro United+0.00on par

Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tooro United ↓

Gaddafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tooro United or draw

68%

Tooro United or Gaddafi

73%

Draw or Gaddafi

59%

Winning margin

Tooro United wins by 2+

19%

Gaddafi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tooro United 1+ goals

73%

Tooro United 2+ goals

38%

Tooro United 3+ goals

15%

Gaddafi 1+ goals

68%

Gaddafi 2+ goals

32%

Gaddafi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tooro United (draw refunded)

56%

Gaddafi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tooro United at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tooro United attack 0.82 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.32

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + Tooro United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tooro United scores more

41%

level

27%

Gaddafi scores more

32%

Tooro United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tooro United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff