Gaddafi 7–0 Tooro United: Result & Stats

Gaddafi

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tooro United

5/6/2022

Premier League · Round 28Gaddafi Barracks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Gaddafi65%

×Draw21%

Tooro United14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GaddafiExpected goals in this matchTooro United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.75

Gaddafi

1.92

Tooro United

0.75

Gaddafi creates 156% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 27 away

1.16

creates per match

0.59

0.91

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Gaddafi

1.16

Tooro United

0.59

allows per match

Gaddafi

0.91

Tooro United

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaddafi+0.00on par

Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaddafi ↓

Tooro United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gaddafi or draw

86%

Gaddafi or Tooro United

79%

Draw or Tooro United

35%

Winning margin

Gaddafi wins by 2+

39%

Tooro United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gaddafi 1+ goals

85%

Gaddafi 2+ goals

57%

Gaddafi 3+ goals

30%

Tooro United 1+ goals

53%

Tooro United 2+ goals

17%

Tooro United 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Gaddafi (draw refunded)

82%

Tooro United (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaddafi at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaddafi attack 1.16 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

Tooro United attack 0.59 + Gaddafi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gaddafi scores more

65%

level

21%

Tooro United scores more

14%

Gaddafi at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gaddafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff