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Tooro United vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Tooro United
Tooro United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
BUL
BUL
12/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Buhinga Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tooro United26%
×Draw27%
BUL47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tooro United
0.95
BUL
1.39

BUL creates 46% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

creates per match

Tooro United
0.82
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Tooro United
1.61
BUL
1.08

finishing

Tooro United+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tooro United ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tooro United or draw
53%
Tooro United or BUL
73%
Draw or BUL
74%

Winning margin

Tooro United wins by 2+
9%
BUL wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tooro United 1+ goals
61%
Tooro United 2+ goals
25%
Tooro United 3+ goals
7%
BUL 1+ goals
75%
BUL 2+ goals
40%
BUL 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tooro United (draw refunded)
35%
BUL (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tooro United at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tooro United attack 0.82 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

BUL attack 1.17 + Tooro United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tooro United scores more
26%
level
27%
BUL scores more
47%

BUL at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tooro United 1–3 BUL

BUL beat Tooro United 3-1 in Premier League on December 10, 2021.

The match was played at Buhinga Football Stadium in Fort Portal.