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BUL vs Tooro United — Premier League 2019

BUL
BUL
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tooro United
Tooro United
3/18/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Kyabazinga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

BUL69%
×Draw20%
Tooro United12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BUL
2.05
Tooro United
0.71

BUL creates 189% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 27 away

creates per match

BUL
1.43
Tooro United
0.59

allows per match

BUL
0.83
Tooro United
2.67

finishing

BUL+0.00on par
Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BUL ↓

Tooro United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

BUL or draw
88%
BUL or Tooro United
80%
Draw or Tooro United
31%

Winning margin

BUL wins by 2+
43%
Tooro United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

BUL 1+ goals
87%
BUL 2+ goals
61%
BUL 3+ goals
33%
Tooro United 1+ goals
51%
Tooro United 2+ goals
16%
Tooro United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

BUL (draw refunded)
85%
Tooro United (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BUL at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.83 · 99 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BUL attack 1.43 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Tooro United attack 0.59 + BUL defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

BUL scores more
69%
level
20%
Tooro United scores more
12%

BUL at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BUL vs Tooro United

BUL beat Tooro United 2-0 in Premier League on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at Kyabazinga Stadium in Bugembe.