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Tonnerre vs Les Astres — Elite One 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 2
Les Astres
Les Astres
4/10/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 6Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tonnerre35%
×Draw29%
Les Astres36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.11
Les Astres
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 75 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
0.91
Les Astres
1.03

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.23
Les Astres
1.31

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Les Astres+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Les Astres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
64%
Tonnerre or Les Astres
71%
Draw or Les Astres
65%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
14%
Les Astres wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
67%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
30%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
10%
Les Astres 1+ goals
68%
Les Astres 2+ goals
31%
Les Astres 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
49%
Les Astres (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

Les Astres away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 0.91 + Les Astres defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Les Astres attack 1.03 + Tonnerre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tonnerre scores more
35%
level
29%
Les Astres scores more
36%

Les Astres at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tonnerre vs Les Astres

Les Astres beat Tonnerre 2-1 in Elite One on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.