Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Les Astres vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

Les Astres
Les Astres
FT
2 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
4/30/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Les Astres46%
×Draw29%
Tonnerre25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Les Astres
1.25
Tonnerre
0.85

Les Astres creates 47% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 36 away

creates per match

Les Astres
1.31
Tonnerre
0.64

allows per match

Les Astres
1.06
Tonnerre
1.19

finishing

Les Astres+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Les Astres ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Les Astres or draw
75%
Les Astres or Tonnerre
71%
Draw or Tonnerre
54%

Winning margin

Les Astres wins by 2+
21%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Les Astres 1+ goals
71%
Les Astres 2+ goals
36%
Les Astres 3+ goals
13%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
57%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
21%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Les Astres (draw refunded)
64%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Les Astres at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Les Astres attack 1.31 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + Les Astres defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Les Astres scores more
46%
level
29%
Tonnerre scores more
25%

Les Astres at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Les Astres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Les Astres 2–0 Tonnerre

Les Astres beat Tonnerre 2-0 in Elite One on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.