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Tonnerre vs Eding Sport — Elite Two 2020

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
4/12/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Tonnerre44%
×Draw27%
Eding Sport29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.35
Eding Sport
1.03

Tonnerre creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.46
Eding Sport
0.93

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.13
Eding Sport
1.25

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
71%
Tonnerre or Eding Sport
73%
Draw or Eding Sport
56%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
21%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
74%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
39%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
15%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
64%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
28%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
61%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.46 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + Tonnerre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tonnerre scores more
44%
level
27%
Eding Sport scores more
29%

Tonnerre at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Tonnerre 1–1 Eding Sport

Tonnerre and Eding Sport drew 1-1 in Elite Two on April 12, 2025.