Eding Sport 3–2 Tonnerre: Result & Stats

Eding Sport

FT

3 – 2

Tonnerre

9/19/2021

Elite One · Relegation Play-offsStade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Eding Sport43%

×Draw31%

Tonnerre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eding SportExpected goals in this matchTonnerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.79

Eding Sport

1.10

Tonnerre

0.79

Eding Sport creates 39% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

1.02

creates per match

0.64

0.94

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Eding Sport

1.02

Tonnerre

0.64

allows per match

Eding Sport

0.94

Tonnerre

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Tonnerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw

74%

Eding Sport or Tonnerre

69%

Draw or Tonnerre

57%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+

18%

Tonnerre wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals

67%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

30%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

10%

Tonnerre 1+ goals

55%

Tonnerre 2+ goals

19%

Tonnerre 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

62%

Tonnerre (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eding Sport scores more

43%

level

31%

Tonnerre scores more

26%

Eding Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff