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Tonnerre vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
CANC
00:00
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
4/5/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Tonnerre37%
×Draw30%
Avion Academy33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.08
Avion Academy
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 67 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
0.91
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.23
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
67%
Tonnerre or Avion Academy
70%
Draw or Avion Academy
63%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
15%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
66%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
29%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
10%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
64%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
27%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
52%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 0.91 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Tonnerre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tonnerre scores more
37%
level
30%
Avion Academy scores more
33%

Tonnerre at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tonnerre host Avion Academy

April 5, 2020: Tonnerre take on Avion Academy in Elite One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.