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Avion Academy vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
2 – 1
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
12/18/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 14Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Avion Academy43%
×Draw31%
Tonnerre27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.13
Tonnerre
0.83

Avion Academy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 36 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.06
Tonnerre
0.64

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.03
Tonnerre
1.19

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
73%
Avion Academy or Tonnerre
69%
Draw or Tonnerre
57%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
18%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
68%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
31%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
11%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
56%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
20%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
61%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.03 · 63 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.06 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + Avion Academy defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Avion Academy scores more
43%
level
31%
Tonnerre scores more
27%

Avion Academy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avion Academy vs Tonnerre

Avion Academy beat Tonnerre 2-1 in Elite One on December 18, 2019.

The match was played at Middle Farm Stadium in Limbé.