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Tondela vs Santa Clara — Taça de Portugal 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
10/15/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tondela63%
×Draw20%
Santa Clara17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
2.20
Santa Clara
1.07

Tondela creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tondela
3.33
Santa Clara
1.64

allows per match

Tondela
0.50
Santa Clara
1.07

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
Santa Clara+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Santa Clara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
83%
Tondela or Santa Clara
80%
Draw or Santa Clara
37%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
40%
Santa Clara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
89%
Tondela 2+ goals
64%
Tondela 3+ goals
37%
Santa Clara 1+ goals
66%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
29%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
78%
Santa Clara (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 3.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Santa Clara away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 3.33 + Santa Clara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.20

Santa Clara attack 1.64 + Tondela defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tondela scores more
63%
level
20%
Santa Clara scores more
17%

Tondela at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tondela vs Santa Clara

Tondela beat Santa Clara 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.