Santa Clara 1–0 Tondela: Result & Stats

Santa Clara

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tondela

4/20/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 30Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Clara44%

×Draw29%

Tondela27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa ClaraExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.93

Santa Clara

1.27

Tondela

0.93

Santa Clara creates 37% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

1.39

0.47

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Santa Clara

1.47

Tondela

1.39

allows per match

Santa Clara

0.47

Tondela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw

73%

Santa Clara or Tondela

71%

Draw or Tondela

56%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+

20%

Tondela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals

72%

Santa Clara 2+ goals

36%

Santa Clara 3+ goals

14%

Tondela 1+ goals

61%

Tondela 2+ goals

24%

Tondela 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)

62%

Tondela (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.47 + Tondela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tondela attack 1.39 + Santa Clara defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santa Clara scores more

44%

level

29%

Tondela scores more

27%

Santa Clara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff