Tondela 1–1 Rio Ave: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Tondela

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rio Ave

Ricardo Alves 9'

R. Meshino 90+2'

9/20/2020

Primeira Liga · Round 1Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Tondela41%

×Draw27%

Rio Ave32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchRio Ave

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.15

Tondela

1.33

Rio Ave

1.15

Tondela creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 18 away

1.10

creates per match

0.75

1.54

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Tondela

1.10

Rio Ave

0.75

allows per match

Tondela

1.54

Rio Ave

1.57

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Tondela-0.43scores less

Rio Ave+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Rio Ave →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

68%

Tondela or Rio Ave

73%

Draw or Rio Ave

59%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

19%

Rio Ave wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

74%

Tondela 2+ goals

38%

Tondela 3+ goals

15%

Rio Ave 1+ goals

68%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

32%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

56%

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.57 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.10 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rio Ave attack 0.75 + Tondela defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tondela scores more

41%

level

27%

Rio Ave scores more

32%

Tondela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Ricardo Alves

Tondela · D

7.7

Match Events

9'

Ricardo Alves↳ Salvador Agra

46'

Bruno Moreira← Lucas Piazón

71'

Rafael Barbosa← Salvador Agra

73'

Francisco Geraldes← Nélson Monte

73'

Gabrielzinho← Gelson Dala

76'

Tiago Almeida← Bebeto

85'

Jota Gonçalves← João Pedro

86'

R. Meshino← Tarantini

88'

Tomislav Štrkalj

90+2'

R. Meshino↳ Francisco Geraldes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TondelaRio

Overview

34%Possession66%

7Total Shots15

1Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots15

2On Target4

4Off Target6

1Blocked5

3Inside Box12

4Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

318Total Passes605

217Accurate Passes503

68%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2