Rio Ave 2–1 Tondela: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Rio Ave

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tondela

Rafael Camacho 64'

Carlos Mané 59'

J. Murillo 32'

2/9/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 18Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Rio Ave47%

×Draw26%

Tondela27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio AveExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.06

Rio Ave

1.49

Tondela

1.06

Rio Ave creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Rio Ave

1.33

Tondela

0.93

allows per match

Rio Ave

1.20

Tondela

1.65

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Rio Ave-0.40scores less

Tondela-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw

73%

Rio Ave or Tondela

74%

Draw or Tondela

53%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+

23%

Tondela wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals

77%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

44%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

19%

Tondela 1+ goals

65%

Tondela 2+ goals

29%

Tondela 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

64%

Tondela (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Tondela away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.65 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.33 + Tondela defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Tondela attack 0.93 + Rio Ave defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rio Ave scores more

47%

level

26%

Tondela scores more

27%

Rio Ave at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Francisco Geraldes

Rio Ave · F

7.5

Match Events

5'

11'

32'

39'

46'

58'

Salvador Agra← Telmo Arcanjo

59'

Carlos Mané↳ Francisco Geraldes

64'

Rafael Camacho↳ Gelson Dala

72'

Anderson Cruz← Rafael Camacho

72'

Pedro Amaral← Fábio Coentrão

73'

Tiago Almeida← Bebeto

73'

S. Anne← Pedro Augusto

81'

Tarantini← Filipe Augusto

82'

Salvador Agra

87'

Pelé

88'

Gelson Dala

88'

Nélson Monte← Francisco Geraldes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RioTondela

Overview

54%Possession46%

6Total Shots11

2Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target5

3Off Target4

1Blocked2

2Inside Box3

4Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

471Total Passes399

384Accurate Passes304

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3