Tondela 1–1 Felgueiras 1932: Result & Stats

Tondela

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Felgueiras 1932

Roberto 64' (pen)

João Santos 54'

8/31/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 4Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Tondela40%

×Draw27%

Felgueiras 193233%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchFelgueiras 1932

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Tondela

1.29

Felgueiras 1932

1.15

Tondela creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.33

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Tondela

1.33

Felgueiras 1932

1.15

allows per match

Tondela

1.16

Felgueiras 1932

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

67%

Tondela or Felgueiras 1932

73%

Draw or Felgueiras 1932

60%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

18%

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

72%

Tondela 2+ goals

37%

Tondela 3+ goals

14%

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

68%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

32%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

55%

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.15 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tondela scores more

40%

level

27%

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

33%

Tondela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Roberto

39'

Rui Rampa

46'

Cícero← André Ceitil

46'

J. Bonilla← Rui Rampa

46'

João Santos← Feliz Vaz

54'

João Santos

60'

Bebeto← Talocha

60'

Cascavel← E. Maviram

64'

RobertoPenalty

66'

Tiago Manso

69'

T. Fuller← Tiago Manso

76'

David Veiga← Landinho

76'

Aílson Tavares← Gabi Pereira

78'

Nuno Cunha← Hélder Tavares

83'

J. Arthur← Théo Fonseca

90+1'

Trayvon Fuller

Shots

Statistics

TondelaFelgueiras

Overview

1Total Shots1

1Fouls1

Shots

1Total Shots1

1On Target1

Discipline

1Fouls1