Felgueiras 1932 0–1 Tondela: Result & Stats

Felgueiras 1932

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tondela

T. Štrkalj 90+5' (pen)

11/22/2020

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Felgueiras 193255%

×Draw22%

Tondela23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Felgueiras 1932Expected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.21

Felgueiras 1932

2.00

Tondela

1.21

Felgueiras 1932 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.50

creates per match

1.50

0.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932

2.50

Tondela

1.50

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932

0.92

Tondela

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Tondela →

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw

77%

Felgueiras 1932 or Tondela

78%

Draw or Tondela

45%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

33%

Tondela wins by 2+

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

86%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

59%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

32%

Tondela 1+ goals

70%

Tondela 2+ goals

34%

Tondela 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

71%

Tondela (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.50 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tondela attack 1.50 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

55%

level

22%

Tondela scores more

23%

Felgueiras 1932 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

João Pedro← João Jaquité

58'

Telmo Arcanjo← J. Murillo

65'

André Rodrigues← Kiko Félix

77'

Pedro Augusto← Jota Gonçalves

78'

Filipe Ferreira← N. Khacef

85'

Tiago Miranda← João Bruno

86'

Théo Fonseca← Nuninho

90+5'

Helder Pedro

90+5'

Helder Pedro

90+5'

T. ŠtrkaljPenalty

Felgueiras

Tondela

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Nuno Andrade

65'▲André Rodrigues←▼Kiko Félix

85'▲Tiago Miranda←▼João Bruno

86'▲Théo Fonseca←▼Nuninho

Felgueiras 1932 substitutes

RodriguesMirandaFonsecaSérgioBarbosaOuedraogoRodrigues

Manager: Pako Ayestarán

58'▲João Pedro←▼João Jaquité

58'▲Telmo Arcanjo←▼J. Murillo

77'▲Pedro Augusto←▼Jota Gonçalves

78'▲Filipe Ferreira←▼N. Khacef

Tondela substitutes

PedroArcanjoAugustoFerreiraFonsecaAnneAlmeida