Tondela 3–2 Famalicao: Result & Stats

Tondela

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Famalicao

R. Dadaşov 84'

J. Boselli 78'

J. Murillo 33'

Adrián Marín 50'

Iván Jaime 40'

9/25/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 7Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Tondela35%

×Draw27%

Famalicao38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TondelaExpected goals in this matchFamalicao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.32

Tondela

1.25

Famalicao

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 33 away

1.10

creates per match

1.10

1.54

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tondela

1.10

Famalicao

1.10

allows per match

Tondela

1.54

Famalicao

1.41

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Tondela-0.43scores less

Famalicao-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Famalicao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tondela or draw

62%

Tondela or Famalicao

73%

Draw or Famalicao

65%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+

15%

Famalicao wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals

71%

Tondela 2+ goals

36%

Tondela 3+ goals

13%

Famalicao 1+ goals

73%

Famalicao 2+ goals

38%

Famalicao 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)

48%

Famalicao (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.41 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.10 + Famalicao defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Famalicao attack 1.10 + Tondela defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tondela scores more

35%

level

27%

Famalicao scores more

38%

Famalicao at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. Dadaşov

Tondela · F

7.7

Match Events

25'

Pedro Augusto

33'

J. Murillo↳ Neto Borges

40'

Iván Jaime↳ Ivo Rodrigues

45+4'

Alexandre Penetra

45+3'

Alexandre PenetraCard upgrade

46'

D. Batubinsika← Marcos Paulo

50'

Adrián Marín↳ Pêpê Rodrigues

51'

Ivo Rodrigues

58'

Rafael Barbosa← Pedro Augusto

59'

J. Boselli← Tiago Almeida

62'

63'

63'

70'

71'

Daniel dos Anjos← Salvador Agra

72'

Eduardo Quaresma← Manu Hernando

76'

Pedro Marques← S. Banza

78'

J. Boselli

82'

Bebeto← J. Murillo

84'

R. Dadaşov↳ Neto Borges

86'

Renat Dadaşov

86'

Alex Nascimento

89'

Bruno Rodrigues← Ivo Rodrigues

89'

David Tavares← Pêpê Rodrigues

90+7'

Bebeto

90+3'

Pedro Trigueira

90'

David Tavares

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TondelaFamalicao

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots14

4Corners3

20Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots14

4On Target7

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

486Total Passes353

400Accurate Passes279

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls11

6Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Tondela vs Famalicao

Tondela beat Famalicao 3-2 in Primeira Liga on September 25, 2021.

Goals: J. Murillo (33'), Iván Jaime (40'), Adrián Marín (50'), J. Boselli (78'), R. Dadaşov (84').

Tondela controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.

Tondela vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tondela vs Famalicao