Famalicao 2–1 Tondela: Result & Stats

Famalicao

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tondela

João Carlos Teixeira 71'

S. Banza 67'

Daniel dos Anjos 90+2'

2/26/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 24Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Famalicao50%

×Draw26%

Tondela24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FamalicaoExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.98

Famalicao

1.52

Tondela

0.98

Famalicao creates 55% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.13

0.84

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Famalicao

1.33

Tondela

1.13

allows per match

Famalicao

0.84

Tondela

1.71

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Famalicao+0.16scores more

Tondela-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw

76%

Famalicao or Tondela

74%

Draw or Tondela

50%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+

25%

Tondela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals

78%

Famalicao 2+ goals

45%

Famalicao 3+ goals

20%

Tondela 1+ goals

62%

Tondela 2+ goals

26%

Tondela 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)

67%

Tondela (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 35 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.33 + Tondela defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tondela attack 1.13 + Famalicao defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Famalicao scores more

50%

level

26%

Tondela scores more

24%

Famalicao at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Adrián Marín

Famalicao · M

8.3

Match Events

33'

H. De La Fuente← Ivo Rodrigues

37'

Modibo SagnanPenalty cancelled

47'

Iker Undabarrena

53'

Simon Banza

55'

Charles Pickel

58'

Rafael Barbosa← J. Boselli

61'

Manu

63'

ManuCard reviewed

66'

Gustavo Assunção← C. Pickel

67'

S. Banza↳ Adrián Marín

71'

João Carlos Teixeira↳ Adrián Marín

83'

Daniel dos Anjos← R. Dadaşov

83'

Javier Avilés← Iker Undabarrena

84'

J. Cádiz← S. Banza

84'

I. Dolček← Bruno Rodrigues

87'

Jhonder Cádiz

88'

Tiago Dantas← Pedro Augusto

88'

Eduardo Quaresma← Tiago Almeida

89'

Modibo Sagnan

90+19'

Ivan Dolček

90+9'

Luiz Júnior

90+17'

Ivan DolčekRed card cancelled

90+2'

Daniel dos Anjos↳ M. Sagnan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FamalicaoTondela

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots10

6Corners3

16Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target3

5Off Target4

4Blocked3

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

378Total Passes392

310Accurate Passes284

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Famalicao vs Tondela

Famalicao beat Tondela 2-1 in Primeira Liga on February 26, 2022.

Goals: S. Banza (67'), João Carlos Teixeira (71'), Daniel dos Anjos (90+2').

Famalicao controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.

Famalicao vs Tondela — Primeira Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Famalicao vs Tondela