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Tonbridge Angels vs Salisbury — League #51 2026

Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Salisbury
Salisbury
E. Sutcliffe 70'
T. Leahy 48'
J. Thompson 13'
N. Odokonyero 76'
E. Sutcliffe 66' (OG)
4/11/2026League #51League #51 · South - 44Longmead Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tonbridge Angels57%
×Draw24%
Salisbury19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonbridge Angels
1.70
Salisbury
0.87

Tonbridge Angels creates 95% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tonbridge Angels
1.67
Salisbury
1.07

allows per match

Tonbridge Angels
0.67
Salisbury
1.73

finishing

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par
Salisbury+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonbridge Angels ↓

Salisbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tonbridge Angels or draw
81%
Tonbridge Angels or Salisbury
76%
Draw or Salisbury
43%

Winning margin

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+
32%
Salisbury wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals
82%
Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals
51%
Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals
24%
Salisbury 1+ goals
58%
Salisbury 2+ goals
22%
Salisbury 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)
75%
Salisbury (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonbridge Angels at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Salisbury away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonbridge Angels attack 1.67 + Salisbury defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Tonbridge Angels defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tonbridge Angels scores more
57%
level
24%
Salisbury scores more
19%

Tonbridge Angels at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
J. Thompson
48'
T. Leahy
66'
E. SutcliffeOwn goal
70'
E. Sutcliffe
76'
N. Odokonyero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: Tonbridge Angels 3–2 Salisbury

Tonbridge Angels beat Salisbury 3-2 in League #51 on April 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Thompson (13'), T. Leahy (48'), E. Sutcliffe (66' o.g., 70'), N. Odokonyero (76').

The match was played at Longmead Stadium in Tonbridge, Kent.