Salisbury 1–3 Tonbridge Angels: Result & Stats

Salisbury

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Tonbridge Angels

N. Coppin 85'

O. Babajide 80'

B. Peart 73'

B. Unwin 15'

9/6/2025

League #51 · South - 8The Raymond McEnhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Salisbury22%

×Draw23%

Tonbridge Angels55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalisburyExpected goals in this matchTonbridge Angels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.79

Salisbury

1.04

Tonbridge Angels

1.79

Tonbridge Angels creates 72% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

1.07

creates per match

2.50

1.07

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Salisbury

1.07

Tonbridge Angels

2.50

allows per match

Salisbury

1.07

Tonbridge Angels

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salisbury+0.00on par

Tonbridge Angels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury ↓

Tonbridge Angels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Salisbury or draw

45%

Salisbury or Tonbridge Angels

77%

Draw or Tonbridge Angels

78%

Winning margin

Salisbury wins by 2+

8%

Tonbridge Angels wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Salisbury 1+ goals

65%

Salisbury 2+ goals

28%

Salisbury 3+ goals

9%

Tonbridge Angels 1+ goals

83%

Tonbridge Angels 2+ goals

53%

Tonbridge Angels 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Salisbury (draw refunded)

29%

Tonbridge Angels (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Tonbridge Angels away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury attack 1.07 + Tonbridge Angels defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Tonbridge Angels attack 2.50 + Salisbury defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Salisbury scores more

22%

level

23%

Tonbridge Angels scores more

55%

Tonbridge Angels at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tonbridge Angels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

B. Unwin

73'

B. Peart

80'

O. Babajide

85'

N. Coppin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff