Tona 1–0 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Tona

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rapitenca

Pol Fernández 60'

1/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tona50%

×Draw26%

Rapitenca24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonaExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Tona

1.54

Rapitenca

0.98

Tona creates 57% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 32 away

1.30

creates per match

0.94

1.03

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Tona

1.30

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Tona

1.03

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tona+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Rapitenca →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tona or draw

76%

Tona or Rapitenca

74%

Draw or Rapitenca

50%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+

26%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals

79%

Tona 2+ goals

45%

Tona 3+ goals

20%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

62%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

26%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)

68%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tona scores more

50%

level

26%

Rapitenca scores more

24%

Tona at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Álex Forés← Adam Hafidh

59'

Arnau Prat← Pius Quer

60'

Pol Fernández

73'

Adriá Casanova← Pau Morer

77'

Ian Arqués← Marc Barragán

85'

Ferran Generó← Didac Serra

85'

Casca← Éric Vilanova

Tona

Rapitenca

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ricard Farrés

59'▲Arnau Prat←▼Pius Quer

73'▲Adriá Casanova←▼Pau Morer

85'▲Ferran Generó←▼Didac Serra

85'▲Casca←▼Éric Vilanova

Tona substitutes

PratCasanovaGeneróCasca

46'▲Álex Forés←▼Adam Hafidh

77'▲Ian Arqués←▼Marc Barragán

Rapitenca substitutes

ForésArqués

Match Recap: Tona vs Rapitenca

Tona beat Rapitenca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 7, 2024.

Goals: Pol Fernández (60').

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.

Tona vs Rapitenca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tona vs Rapitenca