Rapitenca 2–1 Tona: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tona

Gerard Vergé 28'

Chico 16'

Didac Serra 58'

4/1/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca41%

×Draw26%

Tona33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchTona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

Rapitenca

1.45

Tona

1.27

Rapitenca creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

1.34

creates per match

1.24

1.31

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Tona

1.24

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Tona

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Tona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Tona →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

67%

Rapitenca or Tona

74%

Draw or Tona

59%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

20%

Tona wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

77%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

42%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

18%

Tona 1+ goals

72%

Tona 2+ goals

36%

Tona 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

56%

Tona (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Tona away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Tona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tona attack 1.24 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rapitenca scores more

41%

level

26%

Tona scores more

33%

Rapitenca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Chico

28'

Gerard Vergé

37'

Alex Samper← Chico

46'

Pau Juvanteny← Lluc Banús

58'

Didac Serra

62'

Enric Vallès← Didac Serra

79'

Pol Vallés← Casca

89'

Ale Gaitán← Nil Salarich

90+1'

Joan Sancho← Jordi Oribe

Rapitenca

Tona

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Josep Aliau

37'▲Alex Samper←▼Chico

90+1'▲Joan Sancho←▼Jordi Oribe

Rapitenca substitutes

SamperSancho

Manager: Ricard Farrés

46'▲Pau Juvanteny←▼Lluc Banús

62'▲Enric Vallès←▼Didac Serra

79'▲Pol Vallés←▼Casca

89'▲Ale Gaitán←▼Nil Salarich

Tona substitutes

JuvantenyVallèsVallésGaitán

Match Recap: Rapitenca vs Tona

Rapitenca beat Tona 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 1, 2023.

Goals: Chico (16'), Gerard Vergé (28'), Didac Serra (58').

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.

Rapitenca vs Tona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rapitenca vs Tona