Tona 3–2 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Tona

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

4/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tona43%

×Draw28%

Pobla Mafumet30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonaExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.05

Tona

1.32

Pobla Mafumet

1.05

Tona creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 76 away

1.30

creates per match

1.07

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Tona

1.30

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Tona

1.03

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tona+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tona or draw

70%

Tona or Pobla Mafumet

72%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

57%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+

20%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals

73%

Tona 2+ goals

38%

Tona 3+ goals

15%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

65%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

28%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)

59%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tona scores more

43%

level

28%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

30%

Tona at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff