Pobla Mafumet 1–1 Tona: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tona

Arnau Sans 81'

Campayo 56'

10/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Pobla Mafumet47%

×Draw26%

Tona26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchTona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.02

Pobla Mafumet

1.46

Tona

1.02

Pobla Mafumet creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 66 away

1.36

creates per match

1.24

0.81

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Tona

1.24

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Tona

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Tona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Tona →

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

74%

Pobla Mafumet or Tona

74%

Draw or Tona

53%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

23%

Tona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

77%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

43%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

18%

Tona 1+ goals

64%

Tona 2+ goals

27%

Tona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

64%

Tona (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Tona away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Tona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tona attack 1.24 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

47%

level

26%

Tona scores more

26%

Pobla Mafumet at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

Campayo

62'

Guzmán← Guillem Bolado

62'

Pouget← Aleix Grabulosa

70'

Guillem Escarrabill← Campayo

70'

Didac Serra← Arnau Prat

71'

Gerardo de la Torre← H. Bellari

71'

Sergi Quirós← F. Schug

77'

A. Traoré← Adriá Casanova

81'

Arnau Sans

84'

B. Hallebeek← Teo Pozo

87'

Eloi Sánchez← Marc Pijuán

Pobla

Tona

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Adolfo Baines

62'▲Guzmán←▼Guillem Bolado

62'▲Pouget←▼Aleix Grabulosa

71'▲Gerardo de la Torre←▼H. Bellari

71'▲Sergi Quirós←▼F. Schug

84'▲B. Hallebeek←▼Teo Pozo

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

GuzmánPougetTorreQuirósHallebeek

Manager: Ricard Farrés

70'▲Guillem Escarrabill←▼Campayo

70'▲Didac Serra←▼Arnau Prat

77'▲A. Traoré←▼Adriá Casanova

87'▲Eloi Sánchez←▼Marc Pijuán

Tona substitutes

EscarrabillSerraTraoréSánchez