Tona 0–5 Olot: Result & Stats

Tona

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Olot

Moha Chabboura 87'

Guillem Terma 78'

Arnau Forés 33'

Marc Mas 28'

Pablo Ufano 3'

12/3/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Camp de futbol de Tona 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tona30%

×Draw28%

Olot42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TonaExpected goals in this matchOlot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.27

Tona

1.02

Olot

1.27

Olot creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 33 away

1.30

creates per match

1.52

1.03

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Tona

1.30

Olot

1.52

allows per match

Tona

1.03

Olot

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tona+0.00on par

Olot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tona ↓

Olot →

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tona or draw

58%

Tona or Olot

72%

Draw or Olot

70%

Winning margin

Tona wins by 2+

11%

Olot wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tona 1+ goals

64%

Tona 2+ goals

27%

Tona 3+ goals

Olot 1+ goals

72%

Olot 2+ goals

36%

Olot 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tona (draw refunded)

41%

Olot (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tona at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

Olot away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tona attack 1.30 + Olot defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.02

Olot attack 1.52 + Tona defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tona scores more

30%

level

28%

Olot scores more

42%

Olot at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Pablo Ufano

28'

Marc Mas

33'

Arnau Forés

46'

Ferran Generó← A. Jiménez

46'

Pau Morer← Marc Pijuán

46'

Lluc Banús← Adriá Casanova

61'

Joan Maynau← Arnau Forés

61'

Guillem Terma← Marc Roquet

70'

Pius Quer← Pol Fernández

77'

Pau Juvanteny← Pablo Ufano

78'

Guillem Terma

81'

Casca← Guillem Escarrabill

81'

Jordi Manzano← Pedro del Campo

81'

Moha Chabboura← Albert Blázquez

87'

Moha Chabboura

Tona

Olot

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Ufano

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ricard Farrés

46'▲Ferran Generó←▼A. Jiménez

46'▲Pau Morer←▼Marc Pijuán

46'▲Lluc Banús←▼Adriá Casanova

70'▲Pius Quer←▼Pol Fernández

81'▲Casca←▼Guillem Escarrabill

Tona substitutes

GeneróMorerBanúsQuerCasca

Manager: Pedro Dólera

61'▲Joan Maynau←▼Arnau Forés

61'▲Guillem Terma←▼Marc Roquet

77'▲Pau Juvanteny←▼Pablo Ufano

81'▲Jordi Manzano←▼Pedro del Campo

81'▲Moha Chabboura←▼Albert Blázquez

Olot substitutes

MaynauTermaJuvantenyManzanoChabboura

Tona 0 – 5 Olot

Olot beat Tona 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 3, 2023.

Goals: Pablo Ufano (3'), Marc Mas (28'), Arnau Forés (33'), Guillem Terma (78'), Moha Chabboura (87').

The match was played at Camp de futbol de Tona 2 in Tona.

Tona vs Olot — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tona 0 – 5 Olot