Olot 0–2 Tona: Result & Stats

Olot

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tona

Adriá Casanova 84'

Pol Fernández 63'

4/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 30Camp Municipal d'Olot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Olot52%

×Draw24%

Tona24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OlotExpected goals in this matchTona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.04

Olot

1.66

Tona

1.04

Olot creates 60% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 66 away

1.76

creates per match

1.24

0.85

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Olot

1.76

Tona

1.24

allows per match

Olot

0.85

Tona

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olot+0.00on par

Tona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olot ↓

Tona →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Olot or draw

76%

Olot or Tona

76%

Draw or Tona

48%

Winning margin

Olot wins by 2+

28%

Tona wins by 2+

Team goals

Olot 1+ goals

81%

Olot 2+ goals

49%

Olot 3+ goals

23%

Tona 1+ goals

65%

Tona 2+ goals

28%

Tona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Olot (draw refunded)

69%

Tona (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olot at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Tona away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.56 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olot attack 1.76 + Tona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tona attack 1.24 + Olot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Olot scores more

52%

level

24%

Tona scores more

24%

Olot at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Joan Maynau← Guillem Terma

63'

Pol Fernández

67'

Marc Roquet← Bruno Perone

77'

Adriá Casanova← Dani Ribelles

80'

Pablo Ufano← Urri

84'

Adriá Casanova

85'

Eloi Sánchez← Marc Pijuán

90+2'

Pius Quer← Pau Morer

Olot

Tona

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Dólera

46'▲Joan Maynau←▼Guillem Terma

67'▲Marc Roquet←▼Bruno Perone

80'▲Pablo Ufano←▼Urri

Olot substitutes

MaynauRoquetUfano

Manager: Ricard Farrés

77'▲Adriá Casanova←▼Dani Ribelles

85'▲Eloi Sánchez←▼Marc Pijuán

90+2'▲Pius Quer←▼Pau Morer

Tona substitutes

CasanovaSánchezQuer

Olot 0 – 2 Tona

Tona beat Olot 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 21, 2024.

Goals: Pol Fernández (63'), Adriá Casanova (84').

The match was played at Camp Municipal d'Olot in Olot.

Olot vs Tona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Olot 0 – 2 Tona