Tomori Berat 5–2 Shkumbini Peqin: Result & Stats

Tomori Berat

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Shkumbini Peqin

2/26/2022

1st Division · Round 21Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tomori Berat67%

×Draw19%

Shkumbini Peqin14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tomori BeratExpected goals in this matchShkumbini Peqin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.84

Tomori Berat

2.15

Shkumbini Peqin

0.84

Tomori Berat creates 156% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 15 away

1.36

creates per match

0.73

0.95

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Tomori Berat

1.36

Shkumbini Peqin

0.73

allows per match

Tomori Berat

0.95

Shkumbini Peqin

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw

86%

Tomori Berat or Shkumbini Peqin

81%

Draw or Shkumbini Peqin

33%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+

43%

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals

88%

Tomori Berat 2+ goals

63%

Tomori Berat 3+ goals

36%

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

57%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

21%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)

83%

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.15

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tomori Berat scores more

67%

level

19%

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

14%

Tomori Berat at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff