Shkumbini Peqin 0–5 Tomori Berat: Result & Stats

Shkumbini Peqin

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Tomori Berat

10/23/2021

1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shkumbini Peqin37%

×Draw24%

Tomori Berat39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shkumbini PeqinExpected goals in this matchTomori Berat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.57

Shkumbini Peqin

1.52

Tomori Berat

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

1.27

creates per match

1.02

2.13

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Shkumbini Peqin

1.27

Tomori Berat

1.02

allows per match

Shkumbini Peqin

2.13

Tomori Berat

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shkumbini Peqin ↓

Tomori Berat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shkumbini Peqin or draw

61%

Shkumbini Peqin or Tomori Berat

76%

Draw or Tomori Berat

63%

Winning margin

Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+

18%

Tomori Berat wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals

78%

Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals

45%

Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals

20%

Tomori Berat 1+ goals

79%

Tomori Berat 2+ goals

46%

Tomori Berat 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)

49%

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shkumbini Peqin at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shkumbini Peqin attack 1.27 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shkumbini Peqin scores more

37%

level

24%

Tomori Berat scores more

39%

Tomori Berat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff