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Tomori Berat vs Maliqi — 1st Division 2019

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Maliqi
Maliqi
10/30/20211st Division1st Division · Round 7Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tomori Berat63%
×Draw22%
Maliqi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomori Berat
1.90
Maliqi
0.82

Tomori Berat creates 132% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tomori Berat
1.36
Maliqi
0.69

allows per match

Tomori Berat
0.95
Maliqi
2.44

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par
Maliqi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Maliqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw
84%
Tomori Berat or Maliqi
78%
Draw or Maliqi
37%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+
37%
Maliqi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals
85%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
56%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
29%
Maliqi 1+ goals
56%
Maliqi 2+ goals
20%
Maliqi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
80%
Maliqi (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Maliqi away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Maliqi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.90

Maliqi attack 0.69 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tomori Berat scores more
63%
level
22%
Maliqi scores more
16%

Tomori Berat at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Tomori Berat 5–2 Maliqi

Tomori Berat beat Maliqi 5-2 in 1st Division on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.