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Maliqi vs Tomori Berat — 1st Division 2019

Maliqi
Maliqi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
3/7/20221st Division1st Division · Round 22Aneksi i Stadiumit Skenderbeu Korçe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maliqi44%
×Draw24%
Tomori Berat32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maliqi
1.62
Tomori Berat
1.34

Maliqi creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

creates per match

Maliqi
1.47
Tomori Berat
1.02

allows per match

Maliqi
1.67
Tomori Berat
1.77

finishing

Maliqi+0.00on par
Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maliqi ↓

Tomori Berat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Maliqi or draw
68%
Maliqi or Tomori Berat
76%
Draw or Tomori Berat
56%

Winning margin

Maliqi wins by 2+
22%
Tomori Berat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maliqi 1+ goals
80%
Maliqi 2+ goals
48%
Maliqi 3+ goals
22%
Tomori Berat 1+ goals
74%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
39%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maliqi (draw refunded)
58%
Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maliqi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maliqi attack 1.47 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.62

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + Maliqi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maliqi scores more
44%
level
24%
Tomori Berat scores more
32%

Maliqi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maliqi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Maliqi 1–2 Tomori Berat

Tomori Berat beat Maliqi 2-1 in 1st Division on March 7, 2022.

The match was played at Aneksi i Stadiumit Skenderbeu Korçe in Korçë.