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Tomori Berat vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — 1st Division 2019

Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
3/27/20211st Division1st Division · Round 18Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Tomori Berat37%
×Draw30%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomori Berat
1.11
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tomori Berat
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.09

allows per match

Tomori Berat
0.95
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.87

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par
Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw
67%
Tomori Berat or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
70%
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
63%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+
15%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals
67%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
30%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
10%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
64%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
27%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
53%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.11

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.09 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tomori Berat scores more
37%
level
30%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
33%

Tomori Berat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tomori Berat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Tomori Berat 1–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Tomori Berat beat Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-0 in 1st Division on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tomori in Berat.