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Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Tomori Berat — 1st Division 2019

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
12/23/20201st Division1st Division · Round 9Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë60%
×Draw24%
Tomori Berat16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.64
Tomori Berat
0.71

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 131% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 57 away

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.50
Tomori Berat
1.02

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.41
Tomori Berat
1.77

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par
Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Tomori Berat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw
84%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Tomori Berat
76%
Draw or Tomori Berat
40%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
33%
Tomori Berat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
81%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
49%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
23%
Tomori Berat 1+ goals
51%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
16%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
79%
Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.50 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
60%
level
24%
Tomori Berat scores more
16%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Tomori Berat

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Tomori Berat 2-0 in 1st Division on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.