Tomori Berat 1–3 AF Elbasani: Result & Stats

Tomori Berat

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

AF Elbasani

2/10/2024

1st Division · Round 20Stadiumi Tomori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tomori Berat32%

×Draw26%

AF Elbasani42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tomori BeratExpected goals in this matchAF Elbasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.42

Tomori Berat

1.21

AF Elbasani

1.42

AF Elbasani creates 17% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 16 away

1.36

creates per match

1.88

0.95

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Tomori Berat

1.36

AF Elbasani

1.88

allows per match

Tomori Berat

0.95

AF Elbasani

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tomori Berat+0.00on par

AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomori Berat ↓

AF Elbasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tomori Berat or draw

58%

Tomori Berat or AF Elbasani

74%

Draw or AF Elbasani

68%

Winning margin

Tomori Berat wins by 2+

13%

AF Elbasani wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tomori Berat 1+ goals

70%

Tomori Berat 2+ goals

34%

Tomori Berat 3+ goals

12%

AF Elbasani 1+ goals

76%

AF Elbasani 2+ goals

41%

AF Elbasani 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tomori Berat (draw refunded)

43%

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomori Berat at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 55 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomori Berat attack 1.36 + AF Elbasani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

AF Elbasani attack 1.88 + Tomori Berat defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tomori Berat scores more

32%

level

26%

AF Elbasani scores more

42%

AF Elbasani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff