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AF Elbasani vs Tomori Berat — 1st Division 2019

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
5/4/20241st Division1st Division · Round 32Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani66%
×Draw19%
Tomori Berat15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AF Elbasani
2.24
Tomori Berat
0.95

AF Elbasani creates 136% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 57 away

creates per match

AF Elbasani
2.71
Tomori Berat
1.02

allows per match

AF Elbasani
0.88
Tomori Berat
1.77

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par
Tomori Berat+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Tomori Berat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw
85%
AF Elbasani or Tomori Berat
81%
Draw or Tomori Berat
34%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+
43%
Tomori Berat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals
89%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
65%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
38%
Tomori Berat 1+ goals
61%
Tomori Berat 2+ goals
25%
Tomori Berat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
82%
Tomori Berat (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Tomori Berat away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Tomori Berat defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.24

Tomori Berat attack 1.02 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

AF Elbasani scores more
66%
level
19%
Tomori Berat scores more
15%

AF Elbasani at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: AF Elbasani 5–0 Tomori Berat

AF Elbasani beat Tomori Berat 5-0 in 1st Division on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Elbasan Arena in Elbasan.