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Tomislav vs Gornji Rahić — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Tomislav
Tomislav
FT
0 – 0
Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
9/16/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Tomislavgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tomislav58%
×Draw22%
Gornji Rahić21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tomislav
1.98
Gornji Rahić
1.09

Tomislav creates 82% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tomislav
1.49
Gornji Rahić
1.21

allows per match

Tomislav
0.98
Gornji Rahić
2.48

finishing

Tomislav+0.00on par
Gornji Rahić+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tomislav ↓

Gornji Rahić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tomislav or draw
79%
Tomislav or Gornji Rahić
78%
Draw or Gornji Rahić
42%

Winning margin

Tomislav wins by 2+
34%
Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tomislav 1+ goals
86%
Tomislav 2+ goals
59%
Tomislav 3+ goals
31%
Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
66%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
30%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tomislav (draw refunded)
74%
Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tomislav at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.98 · 65 matches

Gornji Rahić away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tomislav attack 1.49 + Gornji Rahić defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gornji Rahić attack 1.21 + Tomislav defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Tomislav scores more
58%
level
22%
Gornji Rahić scores more
21%

Tomislav at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tomislav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Tomislav 0–0 Gornji Rahić

Tomislav and Gornji Rahić drew 0-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tomislavgrad in Tomislavgrad.