Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gornji Rahić vs Tomislav — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Gornji Rahić
Gornji Rahić
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tomislav
Tomislav
4/14/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 21Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gornji Rahić54%
×Draw24%
Tomislav23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornji Rahić
1.73
Tomislav
1.03

Gornji Rahić creates 68% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 64 away

creates per match

Gornji Rahić
1.83
Tomislav
1.20

allows per match

Gornji Rahić
0.86
Tomislav
1.64

finishing

Gornji Rahić+0.00on par
Tomislav+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornji Rahić ↓

Tomislav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gornji Rahić or draw
77%
Gornji Rahić or Tomislav
76%
Draw or Tomislav
46%

Winning margin

Gornji Rahić wins by 2+
30%
Tomislav wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gornji Rahić 1+ goals
82%
Gornji Rahić 2+ goals
52%
Gornji Rahić 3+ goals
25%
Tomislav 1+ goals
64%
Tomislav 2+ goals
28%
Tomislav 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gornji Rahić (draw refunded)
70%
Tomislav (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornji Rahić at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.86 · 29 matches

Tomislav away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.64 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornji Rahić attack 1.83 + Tomislav defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tomislav attack 1.20 + Gornji Rahić defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gornji Rahić scores more
54%
level
24%
Tomislav scores more
23%

Gornji Rahić at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gornji Rahić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gornji Rahić vs Tomislav

Gornji Rahić beat Tomislav 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Harf Arena Gornji Rahić in Gornji Rahić.