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Tombense vs Sao Jose — Serie C 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sao Jose
Sao Jose
4/20/2024Serie CSerie C · Round 1Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Tombense50%
×Draw27%
Sao Jose23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.45
Sao Jose
0.90

Tombense creates 61% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 60 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.32
Sao Jose
1.00

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
Sao Jose
1.58

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Sao Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Sao Jose →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
77%
Tombense or Sao Jose
73%
Draw or Sao Jose
50%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
25%
Sao Jose wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
77%
Tombense 2+ goals
42%
Tombense 3+ goals
18%
Sao Jose 1+ goals
59%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
23%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
68%
Sao Jose (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Sao Jose away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.32 + Sao Jose defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sao Jose attack 1.00 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tombense scores more
50%
level
27%
Sao Jose scores more
23%

Tombense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Tombense 1–0 Sao Jose

Tombense beat Sao Jose 1-0 in Serie C on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida in Tombos, Minas Gerais.