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Sao Jose vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Sao Jose
Sao Jose
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
10/19/2020Serie CSerie C · Round 11Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sao Jose50%
×Draw28%
Tombense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Jose
1.35
Tombense
0.78

Sao Jose creates 73% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sao Jose
1.42
Tombense
0.75

allows per match

Sao Jose
0.80
Tombense
1.29

finishing

Sao Jose+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Jose ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sao Jose or draw
78%
Sao Jose or Tombense
72%
Draw or Tombense
50%

Winning margin

Sao Jose wins by 2+
24%
Tombense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sao Jose 1+ goals
74%
Sao Jose 2+ goals
39%
Sao Jose 3+ goals
15%
Tombense 1+ goals
54%
Tombense 2+ goals
18%
Tombense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sao Jose (draw refunded)
70%
Tombense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Jose at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Jose attack 1.42 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tombense attack 0.75 + Sao Jose defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sao Jose scores more
50%
level
28%
Tombense scores more
22%

Sao Jose at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sao Jose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Jose vs Tombense

Sao Jose and Tombense drew 2-2 in Serie C on October 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Francisco Novelletto Neto in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul.