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Tombense vs São Bernardo — Copa Sul-Sudeste 2026

Tombense
Tombense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
São Bernardo
São Bernardo
4/30/2026Copa Sul-SudesteCopa Sul-Sudeste · Group Stage - 5Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tombense49%
×Draw21%
São Bernardo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
2.17
São Bernardo
1.67

Tombense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tombense
2.67
São Bernardo
1.00

allows per match

Tombense
2.33
São Bernardo
1.67

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
São Bernardo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

São Bernardo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
70%
Tombense or São Bernardo
79%
Draw or São Bernardo
51%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
29%
São Bernardo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
89%
Tombense 2+ goals
64%
Tombense 3+ goals
36%
São Bernardo 1+ goals
81%
São Bernardo 2+ goals
50%
São Bernardo 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
62%
São Bernardo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

São Bernardo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 2.67 + São Bernardo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

São Bernardo attack 1.00 + Tombense defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tombense scores more
49%
level
21%
São Bernardo scores more
30%

Tombense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs São Bernardo

Tombense and São Bernardo drew 2-2 in Copa Sul-Sudeste on April 30, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.