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São Bernardo vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

São Bernardo
São Bernardo
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tombense
Tombense
4/27/2024Serie CSerie C · Round 2Estádio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

São Bernardo50%
×Draw28%
Tombense21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Bernardo
1.34
Tombense
0.76

São Bernardo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 59 away

creates per match

São Bernardo
1.39
Tombense
0.75

allows per match

São Bernardo
0.76
Tombense
1.29

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw
79%
São Bernardo or Tombense
72%
Draw or Tombense
50%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+
24%
Tombense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals
74%
São Bernardo 2+ goals
39%
São Bernardo 3+ goals
15%
Tombense 1+ goals
53%
Tombense 2+ goals
18%
Tombense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)
70%
Tombense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.39 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tombense attack 0.75 + São Bernardo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

São Bernardo scores more
50%
level
28%
Tombense scores more
21%

São Bernardo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: São Bernardo 4–2 Tombense

São Bernardo beat Tombense 4-2 in Serie C on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Primeiro de Maio in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo.