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Tombense vs Sao Bento — Serie C 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Sao Bento
Sao Bento
Max 42'
Keke 41', 27'
Judson 90+5'
Cassinho 24'
7/22/2017Serie CSerie C · Round 11Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tombense50%
×Draw28%
Sao Bento22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.33
Sao Bento
0.77

Tombense creates 73% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.36
Sao Bento
0.70

allows per match

Tombense
0.84
Sao Bento
1.30

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Sao Bento+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Sao Bento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
78%
Tombense or Sao Bento
72%
Draw or Sao Bento
50%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
24%
Sao Bento wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
74%
Tombense 2+ goals
38%
Tombense 3+ goals
15%
Sao Bento 1+ goals
54%
Sao Bento 2+ goals
18%
Sao Bento 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
70%
Sao Bento (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 61 matches

Sao Bento away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.36 + Sao Bento defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sao Bento attack 0.70 + Tombense defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tombense scores more
50%
level
28%
Sao Bento scores more
22%

Tombense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Cassinho
27'
Keke
41'
Keke
42'
Max
90+5'
Judson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tombense 3 – 2 Sao Bento

Tombense beat Sao Bento 3-2 in Serie C on July 22, 2017.

Goals: Cassinho (24'), Keke (27', 41'), Max (42'), Judson (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais).