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Sao Bento vs Tombense — Serie C 2018

Sao Bento
Sao Bento
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tombense
Tombense
João Paulo 90', 5'
Max 51'
5/20/2017Serie CSerie C · Round 2Centro de Integração Comunitário Walter Ribeiro (Sorocaba, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sao Bento43%
×Draw30%
Tombense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Bento
1.16
Tombense
0.86

Sao Bento creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 62 away

creates per match

Sao Bento
1.00
Tombense
0.73

allows per match

Sao Bento
1.00
Tombense
1.31

finishing

Sao Bento+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Bento ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sao Bento or draw
73%
Sao Bento or Tombense
70%
Draw or Tombense
57%

Winning margin

Sao Bento wins by 2+
18%
Tombense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sao Bento 1+ goals
69%
Sao Bento 2+ goals
32%
Sao Bento 3+ goals
11%
Tombense 1+ goals
58%
Tombense 2+ goals
21%
Tombense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sao Bento (draw refunded)
61%
Tombense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Bento at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Bento attack 1.00 + Tombense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tombense attack 0.73 + Sao Bento defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sao Bento scores more
43%
level
30%
Tombense scores more
27%

Sao Bento at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sao Bento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
João Paulo
51'
Max
90'
João Paulo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Bento vs Tombense

Sao Bento beat Tombense 2-1 in Serie C on May 20, 2017.

Goals: João Paulo (5', 90'), Max (51').

The match was played at Centro de Integração Comunitário Walter Ribeiro (Sorocaba, São Paulo).