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Tombense vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2018

Tombense
Tombense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
6/29/2025Serie CSerie C · Round 10Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Tombense45%
×Draw28%
Nautico Recife27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tombense
1.31
Nautico Recife
0.95

Tombense creates 38% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tombense
1.32
Nautico Recife
1.10

allows per match

Tombense
0.80
Nautico Recife
1.31

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tombense or draw
73%
Tombense or Nautico Recife
72%
Draw or Nautico Recife
55%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+
21%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals
73%
Tombense 2+ goals
38%
Tombense 3+ goals
14%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
61%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
25%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)
62%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.80 · 59 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.32 + Nautico Recife defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nautico Recife attack 1.10 + Tombense defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tombense scores more
45%
level
28%
Nautico Recife scores more
27%

Tombense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tombense vs Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife beat Tombense 2-0 in Serie C on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida in Tombos.