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Nautico Recife vs Tombense — Serie B 2018

Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Tombense
Tombense
10/5/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 33Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nautico Recife49%
×Draw26%
Tombense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nautico Recife
1.48
Tombense
0.95

Nautico Recife creates 56% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 38 away

creates per match

Nautico Recife
1.30
Tombense
0.74

allows per match

Nautico Recife
1.16
Tombense
1.66

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par
Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Tombense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw
76%
Nautico Recife or Tombense
74%
Draw or Tombense
51%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+
25%
Tombense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals
77%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
43%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
19%
Tombense 1+ goals
61%
Tombense 2+ goals
25%
Tombense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
67%
Tombense (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.30 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tombense attack 0.74 + Nautico Recife defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nautico Recife scores more
49%
level
26%
Tombense scores more
24%

Nautico Recife at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Nautico Recife 4–3 Tombense

Nautico Recife beat Tombense 4-3 in Serie B on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho in Recife, Pernambuco.