Tombense 2–2 Gremio: Result & Stats | Serie B

Tombense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Gremio

Renatinho 77'

Jean Lucas 29'

Gabriel Silva 17' (pen)

Elkeson 7' (pen)

10/28/2022

Serie B · Round 37Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tombense41%

×Draw32%

Gremio27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchGremio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.79

Tombense

1.04

Gremio

0.79

Tombense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.24

creates per match

0.68

0.89

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Tombense

1.24

Gremio

0.68

allows per match

Tombense

0.89

Gremio

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Gremio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Gremio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

73%

Tombense or Gremio

68%

Draw or Gremio

59%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

16%

Gremio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

65%

Tombense 2+ goals

28%

Tombense 3+ goals

9%

Gremio 1+ goals

55%

Gremio 2+ goals

19%

Gremio 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

60%

Gremio (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Gremio away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Gremio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gremio attack 0.68 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tombense scores more

41%

level

32%

Gremio scores more

27%

Tombense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Renatinho

Tombense · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Lucas Leiva

7'

ElkesonPenalty

14'

Gabriel GrandoPenalty confirmed

16'

Guilherme Rend

17'

Gabriel SilvaPenalty

22'

Gabriel Silva

24'

Diego Ferreira

29'

Jean Lucas↳ Renatinho

45+3'

Rodrigo Ferreira← Elkeson

46'

Joseph← Diego Ferreira

53'

Bruno Alves

61'

Igor Henrique← Guilherme Rend

61'

Keké← Ciel

68'

Lucas Silva← M. Villasanti

68'

Bitelo← Lucas Leiva

77'

Renatinho↳ Keké

80'

Janderson← Emerson

80'

Nicolas← Diogo Barbosa

84'

Rodrigo← Zé Ricardo

84'

Frizzo← Everton

90+3'

Ednei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TombenseGremio

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots9

2Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target4

9Off Target3

3Blocked2

6Inside Box4

10Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

368Total Passes405

295Accurate Passes320

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0