Gremio 3–0 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie B

Gremio

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tombense

7/16/2022

Serie B · Round 18Arena do Grêmio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gremio65%

×Draw22%

Tombense13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GremioExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.64

Gremio

1.80

Tombense

0.64

Gremio creates 181% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.95

creates per match

0.74

0.53

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Gremio

1.95

Tombense

0.74

allows per match

Gremio

0.53

Tombense

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gremio or draw

87%

Gremio or Tombense

78%

Draw or Tombense

35%

Winning margin

Gremio wins by 2+

39%

Tombense wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gremio 1+ goals

83%

Gremio 2+ goals

54%

Gremio 3+ goals

27%

Tombense 1+ goals

47%

Tombense 2+ goals

14%

Tombense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gremio (draw refunded)

84%

Tombense (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio attack 1.95 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Tombense attack 0.74 + Gremio defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gremio scores more

65%

level

22%

Tombense scores more

13%

Gremio at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gremio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff