Tombense 3–2 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie C

Tombense

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cuiaba

Weverton 84' (OG)

Daniel Amorim 10' (pen)

Anderson Rosa 7'

Weverton 90+2' (pen)

Eduardo Ramos 21' (pen)

6/2/2018

Serie C · Round 8Estádio Antônio Guimarães de Almeida (Tombos, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tombense44%

×Draw25%

Cuiaba31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.28

Tombense

1.55

Cuiaba

1.28

Tombense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 12 away

1.35

creates per match

1.75

0.82

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Tombense

1.35

Cuiaba

1.75

allows per match

Tombense

0.82

Cuiaba

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

69%

Tombense or Cuiaba

75%

Draw or Cuiaba

56%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

22%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

79%

Tombense 2+ goals

46%

Tombense 3+ goals

20%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

72%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

37%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

58%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.35 + Cuiaba defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cuiaba attack 1.75 + Tombense defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tombense scores more

44%

level

25%

Cuiaba scores more

31%

Tombense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Anderson Rosa

10'

Daniel AmorimPenalty

21'

Eduardo RamosPenalty

46'

André Mensalão← Jenison

60'

Francismar← Anderson Rosa

71'

Guilherme← Caio

71'

Rubens← Daniel Amorim

81'

Talles Cunha← Eduardo Ramos

81'

Weverton← Jefferson Feijão

84'

WevertonOwn goal

90+2'

WevertonPenalty

Tombense

Cuiaba

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rosa

Polaco

⚽

▼

Amorim

▼

Caio

Manager: Ramón Menezes

60'▲Francismar←▼Anderson Rosa

71'▲Guilherme←▼Caio

71'▲Rubens←▼Daniel Amorim

Tombense substitutes

FrancismarGuilhermeRubensVictorVitorBrenoSenaFelipeBaianoKrugerCarvalhoFelipe

Manager: Itamar Schülle

46'▲André Mensalão←▼Jenison

81'▲Talles Cunha←▼Eduardo Ramos

81'▲Weverton←▼Jefferson Feijão

Cuiaba substitutes

MensalãoCunhaWevertonCarlosAlêBatistaNevesXavierZaquel