Cuiaba 2–1 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie C

Cuiaba

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tombense

Jenison 36', 31'

Rubens 90'

8/4/2018

Serie C · Round 17Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá, Mato Grosso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cuiaba59%

×Draw26%

Tombense15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.61

Cuiaba

1.52

Tombense

0.61

Cuiaba creates 149% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 65 away

1.75

creates per match

0.72

0.50

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.75

Tombense

0.72

allows per match

Cuiaba

0.50

Tombense

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuiaba+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

85%

Cuiaba or Tombense

74%

Draw or Tombense

41%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

32%

Tombense wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

78%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

45%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

20%

Tombense 1+ goals

46%

Tombense 2+ goals

13%

Tombense 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

80%

Tombense (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.29 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.75 + Tombense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tombense attack 0.72 + Cuiaba defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cuiaba scores more

59%

level

26%

Tombense scores more

15%

Cuiaba at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

Jenison

36'

Jenison

46'

Zaquel← Jean Neves

46'

Polaco← Everton

60'

Everton Sena← Francismar

68'

Felipe Baiano← André Rocha

80'

Bruno Alves← Bruno Sávio

86'

Adriano Pardal← Jenison

90'

Rubens

Cuiaba

Tombense

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Jenison

Alê

▼

Sávio

Manager: Itamar Schülle

46'▲Zaquel←▼Jean Neves

80'▲Bruno Alves←▼Bruno Sávio

86'▲Adriano Pardal←▼Jenison

Cuiaba substitutes

ZaquelAlvesPardalCarlosDodaBorgesCariocaGeovaniHiltinhoCastroProfetaRonaell

Manager: Eugênio Souza

46'▲Polaco←▼Everton

60'▲Everton Sena←▼Francismar

68'▲Felipe Baiano←▼André Rocha

Tombense substitutes

PolacoSenaBaianoVictorBocãoFelipeGuilhermeNatanaelUlisses