Tombense 2–2 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Tombense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

Pedro Costa 90+6'

Alex Sandro 65'

Arilson 90'

Fabinho 6'

7/30/2023

Serie B · Round 20Estádio Soares de Azevedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tombense43%

×Draw30%

Criciuma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TombenseExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.88

Tombense

1.20

Criciuma

0.88

Tombense creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 105 away

1.24

creates per match

0.86

0.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tombense

1.24

Criciuma

0.86

allows per match

Tombense

0.89

Criciuma

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tombense+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tombense ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tombense or draw

73%

Tombense or Criciuma

70%

Draw or Criciuma

57%

Winning margin

Tombense wins by 2+

19%

Criciuma wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tombense 1+ goals

70%

Tombense 2+ goals

34%

Tombense 3+ goals

12%

Criciuma 1+ goals

59%

Criciuma 2+ goals

22%

Criciuma 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tombense (draw refunded)

62%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tombense at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.16 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tombense attack 1.24 + Criciuma defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Criciuma attack 0.86 + Tombense defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tombense scores more

43%

level

30%

Criciuma scores more

27%

Tombense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Bruno Silva

Tombense · M

7.6

Match Events

6'

Fabinho↳ Miqueias

7'

Walisson Maia

12'

Egídio

32'

Kevin

46'

Fernandão← Marcelinho

49'

FernandãoGoal cancelled

60'

Alex Sandro← Jáderson

65'

Alex Sandro↳ Matheus Frizzo

66'

João Carlos← Tiago Marques

73'

Pedro Costa← Kevin

73'

Djalma← Matheus Frizzo

73'

Rafael← Kleiton

75'

75'

76'

78'

85'

Ítalo Melo← Fellipe Mateus

85'

Welinton Torrão← Fabinho

90'

Arilson

90'

Arilson↳ Rômulo

90+6'

Pedro Costa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TombenseCriciuma

Overview

64%Possession36%

18Total Shots13

1.49Expected Goals (xG)1.58

7Corners1

20Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots13

9On Target2

4Off Target6

5Blocked5

10Inside Box9

8Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

554Total Passes324

460Accurate Passes230

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

20Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Tombense vs Criciuma

Tombense and Criciuma drew 2-2 in Serie B on July 30, 2023.

Goals: Fabinho (6'), Alex Sandro (65'), Arilson (90'), Pedro Costa (90+6').

Tombense controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estádio Soares de Azevedo in Muriaé, Minas Gerais.

Tombense vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tombense vs Criciuma