Criciuma 2–0 Tombense: Result & Stats | Serie B

Criciuma

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tombense

4/16/2023

Serie B · Round 1Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Criciuma56%

×Draw26%

Tombense18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.74

Criciuma

1.52

Tombense

0.74

Criciuma creates 105% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 38 away

1.37

creates per match

0.74

0.75

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Criciuma

1.37

Tombense

0.74

allows per match

Criciuma

0.75

Tombense

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

82%

Criciuma or Tombense

74%

Draw or Tombense

44%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

29%

Tombense wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

78%

Criciuma 2+ goals

45%

Criciuma 3+ goals

20%

Tombense 1+ goals

52%

Tombense 2+ goals

17%

Tombense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

75%

Tombense (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.75 · 104 matches

Tombense away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.66 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Tombense defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tombense attack 0.74 + Criciuma defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Criciuma scores more

56%

level

26%

Tombense scores more

18%

Criciuma at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff